http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/ The place to learn about and discuss Managed Video as a Service Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:08:16 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-300 Rob Powell Tue, 24 Feb 2009 06:43:53 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-300 This is a case where gut instinct is wrong. Behaviorists say we have an 'agent' which does basic probability inside us, but it is limited and doesn't handle this sort of situation well. It is mathematically provable that your chances are twice as good if you switch. This is a case where gut instinct is wrong. Behaviorists say we have an 'agent' which does basic probability inside us, but it is limited and doesn't handle this sort of situation well. It is mathematically provable that your chances are twice as good if you switch.

]]> http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-299 Ori Tue, 24 Feb 2009 06:20:03 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-299 I don't know, really. I never saw the show, believe it or not, so I don't know what kind of odds to expect. I don't know, really. I never saw the show, believe it or not, so I don't know what kind of odds to expect.

]]> http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-296 Steve Mon, 23 Feb 2009 17:01:12 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-296 I would stick with my original guess because it seems like many times your gut instinct is correct and by second guessing yourself you will make the wrong choice many times. I would also feel worse if I did change my guess and then found out that I was correct before I second guessed. The big question is that if you had won the car would you risk it to go for the big deal at the end of the show? I would stick with my original guess because it seems like many times your gut instinct is correct and by second guessing yourself you will make the wrong choice many times. I would also feel worse if I did change my guess and then found out that I was correct before I second guessed. The big question is that if you had won the car would you risk it to go for the big deal at the end of the show?

]]> http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-295 Ori Pessach Sun, 22 Feb 2009 20:24:22 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-295 Ah - the Monty Hall paradox. It's older than the hills, but still fun. The odds of winning are better when you switch your door, so you should always switch. This can be easily proved by writing down the probability tree for the problem. Intuitively, Monty gives you additional information when he opens the door. This is information you didn't have when you first made your choice, which is why it makes a difference. Ah – the Monty Hall paradox. It's older than the hills, but still fun. The odds of winning are better when you switch your door, so you should always switch. This can be easily proved by writing down the probability tree for the problem. Intuitively, Monty gives you additional information when he opens the door. This is information you didn't have when you first made your choice, which is why it makes a difference.

]]> http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-298 dloher Sat, 21 Feb 2009 05:47:46 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-298 As long as I had four or five lug wheels I would take one lug nut off of each of the other three wheels and put them on the wheel missing the lugs. As long as I had four or five lug wheels I would take one lug nut off of each of the other three wheels and put them on the wheel missing the lugs.

]]> http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-294 Rob Powell Sat, 21 Feb 2009 03:04:56 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-294 Haha, as a grad student about 15-20 years ago we argued about this one for a whole afternoon until one of us wrote a quick C program to prove that door #2 has a 2/3 probability of winning. It's counter-intuitive, but nevertheless... Haha, as a grad student about 15-20 years ago we argued about this one for a whole afternoon until one of us wrote a quick C program to prove that door #2 has a 2/3 probability of winning. It's counter-intuitive, but nevertheless…

]]> http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-297 Jfdr Fri, 20 Feb 2009 22:23:16 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-297 What would you do if you went out to your car and one of you tires had the lugnuts removed? Calling AAA is not an option. What would you do if you went out to your car and one of you tires had the lugnuts removed? Calling AAA is not an option.

]]> http://managedvideoblog.com/2009/02/20/lets-make-a-deal-quiz-time/comment-page-1/#comment-293 ***Guest*** Fri, 20 Feb 2009 22:16:25 +0000 http://managedvideoblog.com/?p=1393#comment-293 I would stick with my original pick because either choice still leaves me with 50/50 odds. It seems logical enough, but i'm not that good with numbers. Maybe i should higher a financial analyst and pay them to help me decide. I should have majored in finance. I would stick with my original pick because either choice still leaves me with 50/50 odds. It seems logical enough, but i'm not that good with numbers. Maybe i should higher a financial analyst and pay them to help me decide. I should have majored in finance.

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